Posted by
cehwiedel on Monday, September 04, 2006 8:25:23 AM
The
latest projection of Blogging Caesar for the outcome of this year's California Senate race is no surprise:
California: Diane
Feinstein is an institution in California. She has job security most
of us can only dream
of. Richard Mountjoy is running for the GOP, but that really doesn't
matter. California still has enough Republicans to give him a decent
shot at 40%. Unfortunately, it takes more like 50% to win.
Current Projection: Feinstein by 19.7%
So, plan on voting for Richard Mountjoy but don't waste any time or treasure between now and November in a foregone conclusion. Instead, pick a race you can make a difference in, such as the re-election of Senator Kyl in Arizona:
Arizona: In
2000, Jon Kyl won this seat with 79% of the vote. While that may be an
overwhelming majority, it
is not too hard to attain without any major party opposition. The
Democrats did not field a candidate that year. This year, they have
picked
their state party chairman, Jim Pedersen. Pedersen is a solid
challenger to Kyl, one that some Dems feel can unseat the incumbent,
but Kyl is not
nearly as vulnerable as he might seem. His approval is strong if not
superlative, and Arizona is leans comfortably red. Some polls may show
this race to be within reach for Pedersen between now and November, but
look for Kyl to prevail by a dozen points.
Current Projection: Kyl by 14.3%
[You are invited to visit www.cehwiedel.com, where I write on many things other than the California delegation to the United States Senate.]